A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
